Will Tornado Season Continue Relatively Quiet?

Back on May 14th I wrote about the probabilities of a below or above average June with respect to Nebraska tornadoes based on whether the first three months of tornado season (March-May) were above or below average. In addition, I included the probabilities of an above or below average season as a whole based on these same numbers. I used activity of past years as my basis.

Well, it turns out that tornado activity across Nebraska for the first three months of tornado season was below average with only 11 reports, with the average being 17. Therefore, if the past is any guide, chances are high that we will see a below average number of tornadoes during the month of June, as well as the entire season once all is said and done. Of course,that cannot be guaranteed, and there were some years when the June and seasonal tornado activity in Nebraska ended up above average irrespective of the slow start. But take a look at the attached graphic to see that chances are good that activity will be below average. Let's hope this is the case since June is Nebraska's peak month for tornadoes, with typically 14 or 15 occurring.

Mike