Today was a beautiful summer day with sunshine and highs in the 80’s. Unfortunately, while we will have some sunshine during the weekend we will also likely see a few thunderstorms each day.
Tonight will be mostly clear with lows in the 50’s, so another pleasant night. Saturday will begin very nice with sunshine, but as the afternoon progresses southerly winds will begin to increase humidity levels, and sunshine will boost highs toward the 90 degree mark. By late in the afternoon, a trough pressing slowly eastward from the Front Range will begin to ignite thunderstorms over the Nebraska Panhandle, and these storms will push eastward into Greater Nebraska during the very late afternoon and evening. Any storm can contain large hail and damaging winds, and an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out, and the Storm Prediction Center has Greater Nebraska in a slight risk of severe storms. Any storms will move eastward during the late evening and overnight as the trough continues to progress east.
On Sunday, a cold front dropping southward over the Northern Plains will approach during the afternoon, and this will likely set off a few thunderstorms late in the day, which could then continue into the evening. Highs Sunday will be near 90 once again.
So most weekend plans should be able to get off to a good start if they are beginning in the morning, but during the afternoon on both days and eye to the sky will be necessary.
Don’t forget to log onto KNOPNEWS2.COM and go to our WeatherActive radar feature to track any storms that develop this weekend.
Enjoy the weekend!
Mike
Friday, July 9, 2010
Thursday, July 8, 2010
Thursday's Weather Thoughts
Clouds held tough across Greater Nebraska today, but some sunshine did break through in most areas. Highs generally reached the middle 70’s but Valentine reached 80.
Another disturbance passing across the area will produce clouds and perhaps an isolated shower or stray thunderstorm this evening, but any rain will be very isolated and not heavy. Clearing will take place later tonight with lows in the 50’s.
Friday is looking very nice with sunshine and warm highs in the 80’s with light winds. Dry conditions will be welcomed in the areas hard hit by flooding over the last couple of days.
The weekend is looking even warmer with highs near 90 both Saturday and Sunday. Sunshine will certainly be seen, and both days look ok for any outdoor plans. However, a trough moving eastward from the Rockies may cause a few isolated storms very late in the day on Saturday, which could continue Saturday night. On Sunday, a weak cold front will cross the area late in the day, and this may produce some isolated storms once again.
The front will push southward for Monday, but some showers and thunderstorms may continue as weak disturbances move through the area.
Mike
Another disturbance passing across the area will produce clouds and perhaps an isolated shower or stray thunderstorm this evening, but any rain will be very isolated and not heavy. Clearing will take place later tonight with lows in the 50’s.
Friday is looking very nice with sunshine and warm highs in the 80’s with light winds. Dry conditions will be welcomed in the areas hard hit by flooding over the last couple of days.
The weekend is looking even warmer with highs near 90 both Saturday and Sunday. Sunshine will certainly be seen, and both days look ok for any outdoor plans. However, a trough moving eastward from the Rockies may cause a few isolated storms very late in the day on Saturday, which could continue Saturday night. On Sunday, a weak cold front will cross the area late in the day, and this may produce some isolated storms once again.
The front will push southward for Monday, but some showers and thunderstorms may continue as weak disturbances move through the area.
Mike
Wednesday, July 7, 2010
Wednesday's Weather Thoughts
A much needed break from the heavy rainfall of late is on the way!
A cold front that pushed through Greater Nebraska last night and caused the heavy showers and thunderstorms is now located over central Kansas and continues to move southeastward. However, an upper-level trough pushing eastward from Wyoming will keep the risk of a few showers and perhaps a thunderstorm in the forecast through at least midnight, but then the risk should diminish. Skies will remain mostly cloudy overnight with lows in the 50’s.
Then high pressure extending from Wyoming to southwestern Canada will influence our weather beginning tomorrow and lasting through the day on Saturday. Thursday will be mainly cloudy in the morning, but more sunshine should appear as the day wears on and highs will respond by reaching the upper 70’s.
Fair and warmer weather will continue Friday with highs in the 80’s, and highs may approach 90 on Saturday. However, another front could cause a few isolated late day storms. This front will meander around the area through Tuesday, and keep the risk of isolated storms in the forecast. We should break out of this pattern during the middle of next week, and it could turn hot for an extended period if a strong area of high pressure parks itself over the central and southern Plains.
Mike
A cold front that pushed through Greater Nebraska last night and caused the heavy showers and thunderstorms is now located over central Kansas and continues to move southeastward. However, an upper-level trough pushing eastward from Wyoming will keep the risk of a few showers and perhaps a thunderstorm in the forecast through at least midnight, but then the risk should diminish. Skies will remain mostly cloudy overnight with lows in the 50’s.
Then high pressure extending from Wyoming to southwestern Canada will influence our weather beginning tomorrow and lasting through the day on Saturday. Thursday will be mainly cloudy in the morning, but more sunshine should appear as the day wears on and highs will respond by reaching the upper 70’s.
Fair and warmer weather will continue Friday with highs in the 80’s, and highs may approach 90 on Saturday. However, another front could cause a few isolated late day storms. This front will meander around the area through Tuesday, and keep the risk of isolated storms in the forecast. We should break out of this pattern during the middle of next week, and it could turn hot for an extended period if a strong area of high pressure parks itself over the central and southern Plains.
Mike
June Tornadoes - How Did We Do?
Back on June 1st I wrote about the fact that the 2010 tornado season across Nebraska had been relatively quiet with only 11 tornado reports through the end of may compared to the average of 17. I also discussed what the probabilities were that June (the peak tornado month in Nebraska), as well as the remainder of the tornado season, would continue the quiet streak based on what activity had been in the months March through May. Please see the graphic below:
As you can see from the graphic, when the March-May period has fewer tornadoes compared to the averages, chances are that June and the year as a whole will be below average. However, when the March-May period has an above average number of tornadoes, June has a 50-50 chance of being above or below average, while the chance that the year will be above average is quite high at 86%!
So how did we do during the month of June tornado-wise across Nebraska? Well, first of all, I need to explain how the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) reports the tornado counts.
The count begins with what is know as "Preliminary" tallies, where all tornado reports are counted. These preliminary counts may remain for several months and be revised up or down before SPC issues what they call the "Actual" count. For example, in my graphic above, the number shown for the March-May period is 11. However, SPC revised the March-May count for Nebraska up 2 in their Preliminary tally to 13, still below the average of 17 but up from the original preliminary tally.
So now we have 13 tornadoes for the March-May period. For June, the SPC Preliminary count for Nebraska was 25, well above the average of 15 as shown in the graphic. However, what will the "Actual" count be when SPS releases it later this year? Typically, the Actual counts are lower, and sometimes much lower because the Actual counts are released after NWS employees confirm whether a tornado occurred based on what they find at the site at which the tornado was reported. Sometimes they find that a tornado did not occur - perhaps straight line winds caused damage that was mistaken for a tornado. Or perhaps what was seen was a gustnado - these look like tornadoes but are not formed in the same way as actual tornadoes, and are weaker versions of tornadoes. Or perhaps a tornado was counted multiple times, so two or three reports may have been of the same tornado rather than different tornadoes in the same area.
However, the Actual count would need to be revised significantly downward by at least 10 in order to have a count for June that is not above the average of 15, and I don't think that will occur. So in the end I believe that June was an above average month for tornadoes in Nebraska, and this means that June went against the statistical probabilities as shown in the graphic.
So what will the final count for the year be? Well we will need to wait for that for at least a few months, but unless July and August are well above average, it will probably end up somewhere relatively close to average though a bit above. I'll have the final figures a bit later when they are released.
Mike
As you can see from the graphic, when the March-May period has fewer tornadoes compared to the averages, chances are that June and the year as a whole will be below average. However, when the March-May period has an above average number of tornadoes, June has a 50-50 chance of being above or below average, while the chance that the year will be above average is quite high at 86%!
So how did we do during the month of June tornado-wise across Nebraska? Well, first of all, I need to explain how the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) reports the tornado counts.
The count begins with what is know as "Preliminary" tallies, where all tornado reports are counted. These preliminary counts may remain for several months and be revised up or down before SPC issues what they call the "Actual" count. For example, in my graphic above, the number shown for the March-May period is 11. However, SPC revised the March-May count for Nebraska up 2 in their Preliminary tally to 13, still below the average of 17 but up from the original preliminary tally.
So now we have 13 tornadoes for the March-May period. For June, the SPC Preliminary count for Nebraska was 25, well above the average of 15 as shown in the graphic. However, what will the "Actual" count be when SPS releases it later this year? Typically, the Actual counts are lower, and sometimes much lower because the Actual counts are released after NWS employees confirm whether a tornado occurred based on what they find at the site at which the tornado was reported. Sometimes they find that a tornado did not occur - perhaps straight line winds caused damage that was mistaken for a tornado. Or perhaps what was seen was a gustnado - these look like tornadoes but are not formed in the same way as actual tornadoes, and are weaker versions of tornadoes. Or perhaps a tornado was counted multiple times, so two or three reports may have been of the same tornado rather than different tornadoes in the same area.
However, the Actual count would need to be revised significantly downward by at least 10 in order to have a count for June that is not above the average of 15, and I don't think that will occur. So in the end I believe that June was an above average month for tornadoes in Nebraska, and this means that June went against the statistical probabilities as shown in the graphic.
So what will the final count for the year be? Well we will need to wait for that for at least a few months, but unless July and August are well above average, it will probably end up somewhere relatively close to average though a bit above. I'll have the final figures a bit later when they are released.
Mike
Tuesday, July 6, 2010
Tuesday's Weather Thoughts
A line of thunderstorms currently extending from Cherry County southwestward through Garden County is causing some flooding and severe weather as the line pushes slowly southeastward. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for much of Greater Nebraska until 10pm CT tonight, and a Flash Flood Watch is up for Garden, Deuel, Keith, and Perkins Counties through Wednesday morning as any heavy rain that accompanies storms tonight will fall on ground already saturated from storms Sunday night, and may cause some flooding problems.
The storms are being caused by a cold front that is pressing southward through the State, and by tomorrow morning the front will have pushed through the region, but warm and moist air flowing up and over the front will continue to cause showers and possibly some thunderstorms. But it will also be very cool for July behind the front on Wednesday as clouds will hold highs into the 60’s, perhaps touching 70 in a few southern locations.
The end of the week is looking nicer with more in the way of sun, and temperatures warming up to perhaps 90 by the time we get to the weekend. Another front may cause some isolated storms on Sunday, but right now it doesn’t appear that this will ruin any outdoor plans this weekend.
Stay tuned to KNOP and log into KNOPNEWS2.COM and go to our Weather Active radar feature to keep updated on tonight’s stormy weather.
Mike
The storms are being caused by a cold front that is pressing southward through the State, and by tomorrow morning the front will have pushed through the region, but warm and moist air flowing up and over the front will continue to cause showers and possibly some thunderstorms. But it will also be very cool for July behind the front on Wednesday as clouds will hold highs into the 60’s, perhaps touching 70 in a few southern locations.
The end of the week is looking nicer with more in the way of sun, and temperatures warming up to perhaps 90 by the time we get to the weekend. Another front may cause some isolated storms on Sunday, but right now it doesn’t appear that this will ruin any outdoor plans this weekend.
Stay tuned to KNOP and log into KNOPNEWS2.COM and go to our Weather Active radar feature to keep updated on tonight’s stormy weather.
Mike
Friday, July 2, 2010
Friday's Weather Thoughts - 4th Of July Weekend
The Independence Day holiday weekend is here, but we will be saying goodbye to the beautiful summer weather we’ve enjoyed this week.
A big ridge of high pressure that has dominated our weather all week will gradually lose its grip as a frontal system now located over the northern Rockies pushes southward and eastward. A dryline also extends from northeastern Colorado into the Nebraska Panhandle then into western South Dakota. The front and dryline have been sparking showers and thunderstorms, and a few of these will likely move into western portions of Greater Nebraska this evening. Then the overnight looks to be warm and humid, and breezy with lows near 70.
Saturday will start off decent with partly sunny skies, but as the day wears on the combination of the front, and moisture pushing northward from the remnants of former Hurricane Alex, will cause thunderstorms to break out during the late afternoon and evening, and stormy conditions will then continue through the overnight Saturday and into Sunday. Some of the storms could be severe, but the biggest threat will be heavy rainfall, and some flooding issues could occur, especially where any locally heavy rain occurs. Highs Saturday will be near 90 with breezy conditions continuing, and lows Saturday night will be in the 60.
Sunday will be a bit cooler with highs only near 80, and although storms are possible at any time. The heaviest activity may have shifted eastward by then so perhaps any fireworks displays have a chance of occurring, though an eye to the sky will be necessary.
Monday will see a continued chance of storms though of a lesser degree with highs near 80.
Stay tuned to NEWS2 and log into KNOPNEWS2.COM and go to our WeatherActive radar to track the stormy weather and plan your outdoor activities. Have a wonderful holiday weekend!
Mike
A big ridge of high pressure that has dominated our weather all week will gradually lose its grip as a frontal system now located over the northern Rockies pushes southward and eastward. A dryline also extends from northeastern Colorado into the Nebraska Panhandle then into western South Dakota. The front and dryline have been sparking showers and thunderstorms, and a few of these will likely move into western portions of Greater Nebraska this evening. Then the overnight looks to be warm and humid, and breezy with lows near 70.
Saturday will start off decent with partly sunny skies, but as the day wears on the combination of the front, and moisture pushing northward from the remnants of former Hurricane Alex, will cause thunderstorms to break out during the late afternoon and evening, and stormy conditions will then continue through the overnight Saturday and into Sunday. Some of the storms could be severe, but the biggest threat will be heavy rainfall, and some flooding issues could occur, especially where any locally heavy rain occurs. Highs Saturday will be near 90 with breezy conditions continuing, and lows Saturday night will be in the 60.
Sunday will be a bit cooler with highs only near 80, and although storms are possible at any time. The heaviest activity may have shifted eastward by then so perhaps any fireworks displays have a chance of occurring, though an eye to the sky will be necessary.
Monday will see a continued chance of storms though of a lesser degree with highs near 80.
Stay tuned to NEWS2 and log into KNOPNEWS2.COM and go to our WeatherActive radar to track the stormy weather and plan your outdoor activities. Have a wonderful holiday weekend!
Mike
Thursday, July 1, 2010
Thursday's Weather Thoughts
A few clouds mixed with the sun today, but it was certainly another winning day of weather though it was a bit on the breezy side.
Tonight will be mainly clear and still breezy but mild with lows in the middle 60’s.
Friday will be another mostly sunny day and highs should get close to the 90 degree mark. However, a gusty southerly wind will develop by afternoon as gusts approach 40mph. Unfortunately, Friday will be the last day of our current streak of sunny warm weather.
A front approaching from the northwest and some moisture streaming northward from Texas, in association with what is left of Hurricane Alex which is dissipating over central northern Mexico, will introduce the chance of thunderstorms especially later in the day on Saturday. Skies will be partly sunny and it will be very humid and breezy with highs in the upper 80’s.
By Saturday night and through the day on Independence Day Sunday, skies will be mainly cloudy, and thunderstorms will be possible at just about any time. In addition, because of all of the moisture available, some of the storms will likely contain heavy rains, and this could cause some renewed flooding problems. Also, there is a risk of some severe weather. Highs will reach the lower 80’s.
By Monday, the heaviest storms should be gone but a chance of scattered storms will continue under partly sunny skies and highs in the middle 80’s.
Stay tuned to KNOP and log into KNOPNEWS2.COM for the latest on the holiday weekend weather, especially if you are planning to be outdoors.
Mike
Tonight will be mainly clear and still breezy but mild with lows in the middle 60’s.
Friday will be another mostly sunny day and highs should get close to the 90 degree mark. However, a gusty southerly wind will develop by afternoon as gusts approach 40mph. Unfortunately, Friday will be the last day of our current streak of sunny warm weather.
A front approaching from the northwest and some moisture streaming northward from Texas, in association with what is left of Hurricane Alex which is dissipating over central northern Mexico, will introduce the chance of thunderstorms especially later in the day on Saturday. Skies will be partly sunny and it will be very humid and breezy with highs in the upper 80’s.
By Saturday night and through the day on Independence Day Sunday, skies will be mainly cloudy, and thunderstorms will be possible at just about any time. In addition, because of all of the moisture available, some of the storms will likely contain heavy rains, and this could cause some renewed flooding problems. Also, there is a risk of some severe weather. Highs will reach the lower 80’s.
By Monday, the heaviest storms should be gone but a chance of scattered storms will continue under partly sunny skies and highs in the middle 80’s.
Stay tuned to KNOP and log into KNOPNEWS2.COM for the latest on the holiday weekend weather, especially if you are planning to be outdoors.
Mike
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