Friday, July 30, 2010

A Hot & Humid Weekend Coming Up

A weak cool front passed through Greater Nebraska today, but about the only change in the weather was a wind shift from a southerly direction to a northeasterly direction. This front will do little to cool us down or reduce humidity levels over the weekend, and as winds veer to a more southerly direction again tomorrow, expect the hot and muggy conditions to continue.

Tonight will be partly cloudy, and there is a slight chance of a thunderstorm especially over our southern and western areas with lows into the middle to upper 60’s.

But both days of the weekend will feature more heat and more humidity, and it will be breezy with only a slight risk of a thunderstorm Saturday and the chance of a late day storm on Sunday, so most outdoor plans should be fine. Expect a mix of sun and clouds both days with highs into the 90’s, which will feel a bit hotter because of at least moderate levels of humidity.

The next chance of any widespread thunderstorm activity should come Sunday night into Tuesday as another front, along with a strong disturbance travelling along it, approach the area.

Enjoy the weekend!

Thursday, July 29, 2010

Storms Tonight Then Hot Into The Weekend

Today was very warm and humid across Greater Nebraska, and a warm and humid night is in store along with a few thunderstorms, especially over our northern zones.

A Tornado Watch is in effect for Cherry County until 10pm CT, and any storm in our northern counties this evening can become severe with large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps an isolated tornado. Over the remainder of Greater Nebraska, skies will be partly cloudy tonight with the risk of an isolated storm with lows near 70 with light winds.

Friday will be another very warm to hot day with partly sunny skies and highs in the 90’s once again. A weak cool front will be dropping southward across the area during the day switching winds from southerly to northerly, and there is slight risk of a thunderstorm just about any time.

The front will dissipate to our south by Saturday, and since temperatures behind the front are not much different from what we are currently experiencing, and since southerly winds will quickly return during Saturday, highs both weekend days will be in the lower and middle 90’s. There is a slight risk of a thunderstorms Saturday, and a late day storm is possible on Sunday, but outdoor plans should not be severely affected.

More widespread thunderstorm activity is possible Sunday night and Monday as another front approaches.

Stay tuned to KNOP and log into KNOPNEWS2.COM and go to our WeatherActive radar to monitor tonight’s thunderstorm activity.

Mike

Wednesday, July 28, 2010

Another Visit From Last Evening's Front On The Way

Today was a much cooler day than yesterday’s hot weather, but the front that cooled us down will be coming back for a return visit, and will warm us up again Wednesday.
Highs today topped out in the 80’s, and with sunshine it was a pleasant day.

However, some showers and thunderstorms are already evident on radar from the Nebraska Panhandle west and south, and anyone can see a thunderstorm this evening and tonight as the front to our south and west pushes north and east towards Greater Nebraska. Otherwise, skies will be partly cloudy with mild lows in the middle and upper 60’s.

The front will push through tomorrow morning, and southerly winds will direct warmer air into the region once again, although not as hot as earlier this week. Highs will reach the low to perhaps middle 90’s under partly sunny skies. There is also a slight risk of a storm, especially over northern areas which will be closer to the front.

Expect this front to waver north and south across the area through early next week with temperatures averaging near normal from the middle 80’s to middle 90’s for highs and perhaps a bit higher than normal for lows – from the low 60’s to perhaps lower 70’s.

There is also a daily risk of at least isolated thunderstorms, though right now the weekend is looking a bit better than it did yesterday with perhaps only isolated storms as opposed to more widespread activity. The more widespread activity may wait until Sunday night into Monday as a strong disturbance rides eastward along the front which should be over the area at that time.

Mike

Tuesday, July 27, 2010

After Today's Heat, A Bit Cooler Wednesday

Highs did cross the century mark in Valentine before a cold front passed through, and may have at Imperial where the high was at least 99. Humidity is moderately high especially over eastern areas so heat indices were over 100 in some cases.

The cold front that is now past Valentine will cross the remainder of Greater Nebraska this evening and overnight before stalling just to our south over northern Kansas. As the front moves through, it may spark a stray thunderstorm in a few spots, but nothing widespread is anticipated. Skies will be partly cloudy with lows in the 60’s, and it will be a bit breezy.

Wednesday will be a nice day with mostly sunny skies and highs reaching the middle to upper 80’s with a pleasant breeze.

As the front tries to return north as a warm front later tomorrow through Thursday morning, it may produce a few isolated storms from very late Wednesday evening into the overnight.

By Thursday afternoon, the front should be located to our north allowing warmer and more humid air to flow in once again. Skies will be partly sunny and there is a risk of an isolated storm with highs in the 90’s.

This front will then waver north and south over the area through early next week, allowing for the chance of thunderstorms daily. The best chance looks to occur over the weekend as a strong disturbance moves along the front, so more widespread scattered storms may occur especially from later Saturday into Sunday morning. Highs will generally be from the middle 80’s to the middle 90’s through the period.

Mike

Monday, July 26, 2010

Another Changeable Week Ahead

After a fair and pleasant weekend, today turned hotter with highs in the lower and middle 90’s across Greater Nebraska. And Tuesday is shaping up to be a few degrees hotter.

High pressure over the Great Lakes is circulating a hot and moderately humid southerly flow over the area, and this pattern will continue through the day on Tuesday. After a mainly clear and mild night tonight with lows in the upper 60’s, Tuesday will see sunshine quickly send readings through the 70’s and 80’s and into the 90’s by early afternoon. Highs will reach the middle to upper 90’s by late afternoon, and the extreme southwestern Nebraska typical hot spots like Imperial may reach the century mark.

Humidity levels should remain moderately high, so heat indices could touch or exceed 100 tomorrow afternoon.

A cold front entering the country via North Dakota and Montana will reach northwest Nebraska tomorrow evening, and press through Greater Nebraska tomorrow night. While the front should come through mainly dry, I cannot rule out an isolated thunderstorm, especially over northern areas later tomorrow and tomorrow night.
Behind the front, Wednesday will be cooler with sunshine and highs in the middle to upper 80’s, so a nice day overall.

Unfortunately, the front will stall just south of Nebraska and then waver north and south from Thursday through the weekend. This will allow for the risk of at least isolated storms daily as disturbances ripple along it. The best chance of storms right now looks to be Saturday into Sunday morning as a strong disturbance rolls through. Highs will be generally seasonable in the upper 80’s to lower 90’s through the period with partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies.

Mike

Friday, July 23, 2010

Friday's Weather Thoughts

Well our front that has remained to our south all week finally moved to our north during the overnight last night, allowing hotter air to work its way into Greater Nebraska. Highs are generally in the 90’s, with Valentine the warm spot at 96 at 4PM CDT. However, moderate levels of humidity are lifting heat indices to as high as 100 in Valentine, so certainly a hot day.

Low pressure over southern South Dakota will move eastward overnight, and will drag a cool front across the region. Cooler and drier air behind the front will clash with the warm and moist air ahead of it, so some showers and thunderstorms are possible this evening and overnight, especially over the Sandhills where some strong to severe storms are possible. Heavy rain is also possible with any storms, especially over northern areas. Skies will be partly cloudy with lows by morning in the lower to middle 60’s.

But this front will continue to move south tomorrow, and high pressure will build into the area from Wyoming. This will result in a gorgeous weekend for us with sunshine, low humidity, a nice breeze and highs in the 80’s both days, which is perfect for just about any outdoor plans you may have.

As warmer and more humid air tries to move back into the region Sunday night into Monday, isolated thunderstorms are possible. Highs Monday will be in the upper 80’s. The hot weather can be expected from Tuesday into Thursday with highs in the 90’s, along with higher levels of humidity.

Remember to track your weather on KNOPNEWS2.COM with our WeatherActive feature. Enjoy the weekend!

Mike

Thursday, July 22, 2010

Thursday's Weather Thoughts

The front that refuses to release its grip on Greater Nebraska since last week will continue to cause problems for one more day, but then we should be able to look forward to a beautiful weekend.

The front has refused to budge from its position to our south, though it has made some northward progress today, and should continue to move northward tonight and into the day Friday. An area of low pressure moving to our north tomorrow should help push the front northward, then will cause a cold front to press southward through the area later tomorrow and tomorrow night.

In the meantime, the front will cause thunderstorms now to our west over the front range to move eastward into the region, and some of these storms could produce locally heavy rainfall, and a few could be strong to severe at least until about midnight. Lows will be near 70.

Friday will be warmer as the front presses to our north, with highs in the low to middle 90’s under partly sunny skies. As the cold front approaches, a few thunderstorms should develop once again and continue into tomorrow night.

However, the front should press well to our south by Saturday, and high pressure over Wyoming should produce sunny skies with highs in the 80’s, with an active breeze. Sunday should be about the same but perhaps a few degrees warmer. So a very nice weekend is shaping up.

Mike

Wednesday, July 21, 2010

Wednesday's Weather Thoughts

It looks like more thunderstorms are on the way, and some of them may be severe with large hail, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall.

The frontal system that seems to have become a permanent fixture on the weather map is still situated to our south and west, though it is beginning to lift north and east. This front is what will cause showers and storms as it tries to move through Greater Nebraska overnight. The best chance for storms is until about midnight, though we could still see some activity through the overnight. It will be warm and humid with lows around 70 under mostly cloudy skies.

Thursday’s forecast is a bit tough because it will depend on exactly where the front establishes itself. If it pushes completely to our north, and ends up over South Dakota, it could become very hot with high well into the 90’s, and it could even approach 100 over extreme southwestern areas. However, if the front stalls over central Nebraska, it will be hot but not quite as hot, especially over southwestern areas. Because of the uncertainty, I am forecasting low to middle 90’s with partly to mostly cloudy skies, with the risk of more late day storms. However, highs could be hotter if the front pushes well north.

Friday could also be quite hot depending on the position of the front, but regardless of where it is Friday morning, it will begin to come southward and cross the regions late in the day. Highs should be in the lower to middle 90’s, and there is a continued risk of late day storms.

The active weather will continue for the foreseeable future until we can get a strong ridge of high pressure into the central Plains. There are signs that this could happen around the middle of next week, but until then expect more of the same.

Mike

Tuesday, July 20, 2010

Tuesday's Weather Thoughts

After the severe weather of last night, the front that caused it has settled a bit farther south in central Kansas, taking most of the heavy and severe thunderstorms with it. So while I cannot rule out a few storms overnight across Greater Nebraska, and especially over southwestern areas, tonight should be less stormy with mostly cloudy skies and lows in the 60’s.

However, the front over Kansas will begin to come northward during Wednesday, and this will allow the thunderstorms to make progress northward over our area especially later in the day and at night. It is then that we could see more widespread severe weather, and perhaps some heavy rainfall. Skies will remain mostly cloudy and it will turn very humid with highs tomorrow in the 80’s, and lows tomorrow night near 70.

Thursday could turn hot if the front can make enough progress northward, but for right now the forecast is for a continued chance of storms with mostly cloudy skies and highs near 90, along with high humidity.

Friday into the weekend will see the front coming back southward, so a continued chance of isolated storms with some sunshine and highs near 90 Friday, and back into the 80’s over the weekend. So the unsettled period will continue for the foreseeable future.

Mike

Monday, July 19, 2010

Monday's Weather Thoughts

What happened to the heat-wave for this week that I spoke about on Friday? Obviously, it is not as hot as I expected, though Saturday was every bit as hot and more in some cases.

The upper-level ridge of high pressure that I spoke about all of last week that I thought would bring hot conditions all week long to Greater Nebraska ended up being not quite as strong as I thought it would be. Here is a snapshot of what I though the weather map would look like in general this week:















What I envisioned was a strong ridge of high pressure in the mid-levels that would act to keep the jet stream farther north, which would not allow disturbances riding along the jet to send fronts far enough south to keep us cooler, and keeping any "Ring of Fire" thunderstorms circling the northern periphery of the high mostly to our north.

But here is what is really happening:



















As you can see, the northern part of the high-pressure ridge has a "flatter" look to it because it is not as strong. This has allowed the jet-stream to be oriented a bit farther south. As a result, disturbances riding along the jet to our north have been able to send fronts farther to the south across our region, rather then being held to our north. This is allowing two things: temperatures that are cooler and more numerous showers and thunderstorms.

Unfortunately, it looks as though this same general pattern will be with us this week, so expect warm and humid conditions with lots of clouds, and the chance of thunderstorms at just about any time, though the risk will be greatest later in the day. In addition, any storm can be strong to severe and dump heavy rain. Highs will be anywhere from the middle 80’s to the lower 90’s, though southern areas like Imperial may be able to sneak into the middle to upper 90’s, especially later in the week. Lows will be mainly in the middle 60’s to around 70.

Regardless of the weather, enjoy the week!

Mike

Friday, July 16, 2010

Friday's Weather Thoughts

If you enjoy true summer weather complete with hot temperatures and high humidity, you will likely enjoy the next week of weather, and perhaps beyond.

An upper-level ridge of high pressure currently centered over the Four-Corners region will be the main factor in our weather for at least the next week. It has already begun to pump heat and humidity into Greater Nebraska today, but by tomorrow it will become very hot.

Tonight will be partly cloudy, and there is a risk of a thunderstorm, which could be on the strong side with damaging winds and hail, with lows by morning in the upper 60’s.

But the temperature will rise quickly during Saturday under sunny skies, and by late afternoon highs across the area will be in the upper 90’s to mid 100’s, and the humidity will make it feel even hotter. In fact, heat of this magnitude can be dangerous so caution is advised during any outdoor activities. There is a slight risk of a storm later in the day, but most will not see one.

Then a cool front will approach Saturday night from the north, and move through during Sunday morning. However, this front will stall over the Nebraska, Kansas border during the day Sunday, so while temperatures will not be as hot as they will be on Saturday, highs in the upper 80’s to middle 90’s, along with at least moderate levels of humidity, will still make it a very uncomfortable day.

Next week will be mainly sunny and hot with high in the 90’s, and there is a chance of at least isolated thunderstorms any day.

Stay tuned to KNOP News 2 over the weekend for the latest on this heat event.

Mike

Thursday, July 15, 2010

Thursday's Weather Thoughts

A heat wave is on the way that will likely last through the next week!

Today’s cooler weather was a brief respite from what appears will be a protracted, days long period of highs in the 90’s to perhaps over 100 in some locations, along with increasing humidity.

There were more clouds today than I expected yesterday at this time, and even a few sprinkles. In fact, some rumbles of thunder were heard this morning around North Platte and Thedford, though no heavy rain fell. This clouds and sprinkles were caused by a few weak disturbances travelling eastward that had just enough energy to produce the clouds and very light rain.

Tonight will be partly cloudy with still the risk of an isolated shower or storm with lows in the 60’s.

Then as hotter and more humid air begins to move northward Friday, a few more thunderstorms may develop during the afternoon and evening. But partly sunny skies and southerly breezes should allow highs to reach into the lower 90’s.

For the weekend, Saturday looks very hot with sunshine and just a chance of an isolated storm with highs in the upper 90’s to low 100’s. Sunday may be cooler but still very warm to hot as a cold front may push through the region, and this may cause a better chance of storms with highs from the upper 80’s to the middle 90’s.
Then next week looks mainly sunny and quite hot with highs conservatively in the middle 90’s each day, and with higher humidity levels there will be the chance of isolated storms each afternoon.

So get prepared for an extended period of heat and humidity.

Mike

Wednesday, July 14, 2010

Wednesday's Weather Thoughts

A cold front pushed through Greater Nebraska late this morning and this afternoon, and is now bringing a bit more comfortable conditions with temperatures lowering a bit and humidity coming down a notch. However, the front was delayed by a few hours, and this delay allows highs to soar into the 90’s once again across southwestern Nebraska, and Imperial reached the century mark for the second day in a row.

The front is through now, but a disturbance over Colorado is triggering showers and thunderstorms, and a few of these could move into southwestern Nebraska through the first part of the overnight. Skies for the most part will be partly cloudy and it will be more comfortable than last night with lows in the 60’s.
Thursday will be a nice day overall with sunshine, light winds and highs in the 80’s, and humidity levels will be a bit lower.

Enjoy Thursday because by Friday, the heat will begin to return and once here, it may last into next week with perhaps another slight break on Sunday. Also, expect the chance of isolated thunderstorms to be with us Friday through the weekend.
Next week’s weather will depend on the strength of an upper-level ridge of high pressure, which will be situated over the southern Plains. If the ridge is only moderately strong, it will allow disturbances passing to our north to affect our weather with the chance of showers and thunderstorms daily, though we can expect it to be very warm to hot with highs in the 90’s. However, if the ridge is stronger, we could have a true heat-wave with sunny, dry conditions and highs well into the 90’s or even into the 100’s for much of this week. Right now, I am going with the idea that the ridge will not be too strong, so a bit hot with some thunderstorms, but this could change so stay tuned.

Mike

Tuesday, July 13, 2010

Tuesday's Weather Thoughts

Today was hot by anyone’s yardstick with high anywhere from the lower 90’s to lower 100’s across Greater Nebraska. Fortunately, humidity levels were only moderately high so heat indices were not even higher.

Tonight will be uncomfortably warm and humid with lows in the upper 60’s to lower 70’s with mainly clear skies and a light southerly wind.

A cold front will cross the area during tomorrow morning, and it will begin to usher in somewhat cooler air as it slides south to central Kansas and stalls. Highs will be about 10 degrees cooler than today in the 80’s to perhaps lower 90’s, and there is a slight risk of a thunderstorm due to the proximity of the front.

This front will likely play a role in our weather for about the next week as it oscillates north and south across the region, so slight chances of thunderstorms will remain through the period, especially during the late afternoon and evening with the heating of the day. In addition, when the front passes to our north, it will open the door once again to hot weather. The best chances of that happening right now appears to be Friday and Saturday, and again Sunday and Monday when high reach into the 90’s, with a bit cooler temperatures Thursday and Sunday when the front lies to our south.

So overall a changeable period is ahead weather-wise with some hot days interrupted by a couple of cooler days.

Mike

Monday, July 12, 2010

Monday's Weather Thoughts

It was a bit cooler today compared to Sunday across Greater Nebraska, but also a bit more humid so still a bit uncomfortable. Even warmer air is trying to move northward into the region, and this will make Tuesday a very hot day, but first we will likely need to get through some thunderstorms tonight.

A warm front currently extending from the Nebraska Panhandle southward into southwestern Nebraska, then southeastward into Kansas, is moving northeastward bringing some warmer and more humid air with it. Another front is located south of there across Kansas, and yet another boundary, a trough, is located over eastern Colorado. Each of the boundaries is capable is setting off thunderstorms, and the atmosphere is primed for any thunderstorms to turn severe with large hail being the primary threat, though damaging winds and even an isolated tornado are possible. Any activity that does develop will move eastward, and we can look for partly cloudy skies later tonight with lows in the 60’s.

The warm front will be to our north and east by tomorrow morning, and this will allow a southwesterly flow of some very hot and humid air to flow northward into the area. Highs tomorrow afternoon with sunshine and an afternoon breeze will climb into the middle 90’s to near 100, and some locations could cross the century mark, so a very hot day is on tap for Tuesday.

The front will come southward as a cold front during Wednesday, then stall to our south on Thursday. Wednesday will still be quite warm with highs near 90, while Thursday will be a bit cooler with highs in the middle 80’s. Some isolated thunderstorms are also possible due to the proximity of the front.

The front will come northward as a warm front once again during Friday, and hotter temperatures are likely for Friday through the weekend with highs near or over 90, though Sunday could be a bit cooler with a bit more clouds due to a cold front staying just to our north.

Stay tuned to News 2 and log into KNOPNEWS2.COM and go to our WeatherActive radar feature to track any storms, and keep up with the latest forecasts for the hot weather.

Mike

Friday, July 9, 2010

Friday's Weather Thoughts

Today was a beautiful summer day with sunshine and highs in the 80’s. Unfortunately, while we will have some sunshine during the weekend we will also likely see a few thunderstorms each day.

Tonight will be mostly clear with lows in the 50’s, so another pleasant night. Saturday will begin very nice with sunshine, but as the afternoon progresses southerly winds will begin to increase humidity levels, and sunshine will boost highs toward the 90 degree mark. By late in the afternoon, a trough pressing slowly eastward from the Front Range will begin to ignite thunderstorms over the Nebraska Panhandle, and these storms will push eastward into Greater Nebraska during the very late afternoon and evening. Any storm can contain large hail and damaging winds, and an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out, and the Storm Prediction Center has Greater Nebraska in a slight risk of severe storms. Any storms will move eastward during the late evening and overnight as the trough continues to progress east.

On Sunday, a cold front dropping southward over the Northern Plains will approach during the afternoon, and this will likely set off a few thunderstorms late in the day, which could then continue into the evening. Highs Sunday will be near 90 once again.

So most weekend plans should be able to get off to a good start if they are beginning in the morning, but during the afternoon on both days and eye to the sky will be necessary.

Don’t forget to log onto KNOPNEWS2.COM and go to our WeatherActive radar feature to track any storms that develop this weekend.

Enjoy the weekend!

Mike

Thursday, July 8, 2010

Thursday's Weather Thoughts

Clouds held tough across Greater Nebraska today, but some sunshine did break through in most areas. Highs generally reached the middle 70’s but Valentine reached 80.
Another disturbance passing across the area will produce clouds and perhaps an isolated shower or stray thunderstorm this evening, but any rain will be very isolated and not heavy. Clearing will take place later tonight with lows in the 50’s.

Friday is looking very nice with sunshine and warm highs in the 80’s with light winds. Dry conditions will be welcomed in the areas hard hit by flooding over the last couple of days.

The weekend is looking even warmer with highs near 90 both Saturday and Sunday. Sunshine will certainly be seen, and both days look ok for any outdoor plans. However, a trough moving eastward from the Rockies may cause a few isolated storms very late in the day on Saturday, which could continue Saturday night. On Sunday, a weak cold front will cross the area late in the day, and this may produce some isolated storms once again.

The front will push southward for Monday, but some showers and thunderstorms may continue as weak disturbances move through the area.

Mike

Wednesday, July 7, 2010

Wednesday's Weather Thoughts

A much needed break from the heavy rainfall of late is on the way!

A cold front that pushed through Greater Nebraska last night and caused the heavy showers and thunderstorms is now located over central Kansas and continues to move southeastward. However, an upper-level trough pushing eastward from Wyoming will keep the risk of a few showers and perhaps a thunderstorm in the forecast through at least midnight, but then the risk should diminish. Skies will remain mostly cloudy overnight with lows in the 50’s.

Then high pressure extending from Wyoming to southwestern Canada will influence our weather beginning tomorrow and lasting through the day on Saturday. Thursday will be mainly cloudy in the morning, but more sunshine should appear as the day wears on and highs will respond by reaching the upper 70’s.

Fair and warmer weather will continue Friday with highs in the 80’s, and highs may approach 90 on Saturday. However, another front could cause a few isolated late day storms. This front will meander around the area through Tuesday, and keep the risk of isolated storms in the forecast. We should break out of this pattern during the middle of next week, and it could turn hot for an extended period if a strong area of high pressure parks itself over the central and southern Plains.

Mike

June Tornadoes - How Did We Do?

Back on June 1st I wrote about the fact that the 2010 tornado season across Nebraska had been relatively quiet with only 11 tornado reports through the end of may compared to the average of 17. I also discussed what the probabilities were that June (the peak tornado month in Nebraska), as well as the remainder of the tornado season, would continue the quiet streak based on what activity had been in the months March through May. Please see the graphic below:



















As you can see from the graphic, when the March-May period has fewer tornadoes compared to the averages, chances are that June and the year as a whole will be below average. However, when the March-May period has an above average number of tornadoes, June has a 50-50 chance of being above or below average, while the chance that the year will be above average is quite high at 86%!

So how did we do during the month of June tornado-wise across Nebraska? Well, first of all, I need to explain how the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) reports the tornado counts.

The count begins with what is know as "Preliminary" tallies, where all tornado reports are counted. These preliminary counts may remain for several months and be revised up or down before SPC issues what they call the "Actual" count. For example, in my graphic above, the number shown for the March-May period is 11. However, SPC revised the March-May count for Nebraska up 2 in their Preliminary tally to 13, still below the average of 17 but up from the original preliminary tally.

So now we have 13 tornadoes for the March-May period. For June, the SPC Preliminary count for Nebraska was 25, well above the average of 15 as shown in the graphic. However, what will the "Actual" count be when SPS releases it later this year? Typically, the Actual counts are lower, and sometimes much lower because the Actual counts are released after NWS employees confirm whether a tornado occurred based on what they find at the site at which the tornado was reported. Sometimes they find that a tornado did not occur - perhaps straight line winds caused damage that was mistaken for a tornado. Or perhaps what was seen was a gustnado - these look like tornadoes but are not formed in the same way as actual tornadoes, and are weaker versions of tornadoes. Or perhaps a tornado was counted multiple times, so two or three reports may have been of the same tornado rather than different tornadoes in the same area.

However, the Actual count would need to be revised significantly downward by at least 10 in order to have a count for June that is not above the average of 15, and I don't think that will occur. So in the end I believe that June was an above average month for tornadoes in Nebraska, and this means that June went against the statistical probabilities as shown in the graphic.

So what will the final count for the year be? Well we will need to wait for that for at least a few months, but unless July and August are well above average, it will probably end up somewhere relatively close to average though a bit above. I'll have the final figures a bit later when they are released.

Mike

Tuesday, July 6, 2010

Tuesday's Weather Thoughts

A line of thunderstorms currently extending from Cherry County southwestward through Garden County is causing some flooding and severe weather as the line pushes slowly southeastward. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for much of Greater Nebraska until 10pm CT tonight, and a Flash Flood Watch is up for Garden, Deuel, Keith, and Perkins Counties through Wednesday morning as any heavy rain that accompanies storms tonight will fall on ground already saturated from storms Sunday night, and may cause some flooding problems.

The storms are being caused by a cold front that is pressing southward through the State, and by tomorrow morning the front will have pushed through the region, but warm and moist air flowing up and over the front will continue to cause showers and possibly some thunderstorms. But it will also be very cool for July behind the front on Wednesday as clouds will hold highs into the 60’s, perhaps touching 70 in a few southern locations.

The end of the week is looking nicer with more in the way of sun, and temperatures warming up to perhaps 90 by the time we get to the weekend. Another front may cause some isolated storms on Sunday, but right now it doesn’t appear that this will ruin any outdoor plans this weekend.

Stay tuned to KNOP and log into KNOPNEWS2.COM and go to our Weather Active radar feature to keep updated on tonight’s stormy weather.

Mike

Friday, July 2, 2010

Friday's Weather Thoughts - 4th Of July Weekend

The Independence Day holiday weekend is here, but we will be saying goodbye to the beautiful summer weather we’ve enjoyed this week.

A big ridge of high pressure that has dominated our weather all week will gradually lose its grip as a frontal system now located over the northern Rockies pushes southward and eastward. A dryline also extends from northeastern Colorado into the Nebraska Panhandle then into western South Dakota. The front and dryline have been sparking showers and thunderstorms, and a few of these will likely move into western portions of Greater Nebraska this evening. Then the overnight looks to be warm and humid, and breezy with lows near 70.

Saturday will start off decent with partly sunny skies, but as the day wears on the combination of the front, and moisture pushing northward from the remnants of former Hurricane Alex, will cause thunderstorms to break out during the late afternoon and evening, and stormy conditions will then continue through the overnight Saturday and into Sunday. Some of the storms could be severe, but the biggest threat will be heavy rainfall, and some flooding issues could occur, especially where any locally heavy rain occurs. Highs Saturday will be near 90 with breezy conditions continuing, and lows Saturday night will be in the 60.

Sunday will be a bit cooler with highs only near 80, and although storms are possible at any time. The heaviest activity may have shifted eastward by then so perhaps any fireworks displays have a chance of occurring, though an eye to the sky will be necessary.

Monday will see a continued chance of storms though of a lesser degree with highs near 80.

Stay tuned to NEWS2 and log into KNOPNEWS2.COM and go to our WeatherActive radar to track the stormy weather and plan your outdoor activities. Have a wonderful holiday weekend!

Mike

Thursday, July 1, 2010

Thursday's Weather Thoughts

A few clouds mixed with the sun today, but it was certainly another winning day of weather though it was a bit on the breezy side.

Tonight will be mainly clear and still breezy but mild with lows in the middle 60’s.
Friday will be another mostly sunny day and highs should get close to the 90 degree mark. However, a gusty southerly wind will develop by afternoon as gusts approach 40mph. Unfortunately, Friday will be the last day of our current streak of sunny warm weather.

A front approaching from the northwest and some moisture streaming northward from Texas, in association with what is left of Hurricane Alex which is dissipating over central northern Mexico, will introduce the chance of thunderstorms especially later in the day on Saturday. Skies will be partly sunny and it will be very humid and breezy with highs in the upper 80’s.

By Saturday night and through the day on Independence Day Sunday, skies will be mainly cloudy, and thunderstorms will be possible at just about any time. In addition, because of all of the moisture available, some of the storms will likely contain heavy rains, and this could cause some renewed flooding problems. Also, there is a risk of some severe weather. Highs will reach the lower 80’s.

By Monday, the heaviest storms should be gone but a chance of scattered storms will continue under partly sunny skies and highs in the middle 80’s.

Stay tuned to KNOP and log into KNOPNEWS2.COM for the latest on the holiday weekend weather, especially if you are planning to be outdoors.

Mike