Friday's Weather Thoughts

Tomorrow is May 1st and May begins Nebraska’s peak severe weather season that extends from May through July, so now if the time to be prepared for if and when severe weather strikes.















Fortunately, severe weather is not in the forecast for Greater Nebraska for the next several days as our weather is being dominated by a huge trough, and an upper-level low that is spinning across the northern Plains. Weak disturbances circulating around the low are producing some isolated showers in places, but this activity will diminish after sunset. Then skies will turn partly cloudy, and it will be cold with lows near freezing.

Tomorrow looks like a nice Spring day although it will be a bit breezy in the afternoon, and there is the risk of isolated showers in the afternoon once again as highs crest in the middle 60’s.

A greater chance of showers and perhaps thunderstorms will come Sunday afternoon as a stronger disturbance approaches the area, but much of Sunday should be rain free and most outdoor plans should be okay with partly sunny skies and highs in the lower 60’s.

Fair and warmer weather should be the rule for much of next week.

Mike

Thursday's Weather Thoughts

Unsettled weather will continue for the next few days, although precipitation chances will go down substantially Friday into the weekend.

The cold front that crossed the region overnight last night is now situated over southeastern Nebraska down into western Kansas, with an area of low pressure over southwestern Kansas. The proximity of the front and the low will keep the chance of showers, and even an isolated thunderstorm, in the forecast overnight tonight. However, any severe weather will remain to our east and south for the next several days. Lows tonight will drop into the middle 30’s.

By Friday, the front will have pushed even further east and the low will have progressed through central Kansas northeastward into western Wisconsin, so precipitation from these features will have ended. However, a trough will dominate much of the western and central part of the nation, and an upper-level low will be moving through the northern Plains the next few days. Disturbances circulating around this low will produce clouds though there will also be sunshine, but isolated afternoon showers may pop up, but it certainly will not be raining all the time and it will not rain much at all in any one place. Highs will approach 60.

The risk of isolated afternoon showers will continue into the weekend as the trough and upper low control the weather in Greater Nebraska. However, the weekend will certainly not be a washout and outdoor plans should not be greatly affected. High will be around 60 or in the lower 60’s. Lows will be in the lower 30’s throughout the period so nights will certainly be chilly.

Fair and milder weather will return for the beginning of next week.

Mike

Wednesday's Weather Thoughts

Highs across the region today jumped well into the 70's, but it reached into the 80's in Ogallala and Imperial, with the latter reaching into the upper 80's for a time this afternoon so a very warm day there. Winds gusted past 30mph over most areas, and winds may become quite gusty this evening as a cold front moves through the region.

Otherwise, it will remain breezy overnight, and as a line of showers and thunderstorms moves eastward from the Panhandle, some areas could see an isolated heavier shower or storm especially before midnight. Lows will settle into the lower 40's.

By tomorrow, the cold front will be east of our viewing area, but an area of low pressure forming over Colorado this evening will move eastward into Kansas during Thursday, then northeastward into southeastern Nebraska Friday morning. Although this low will take most of it's shower and storm activity to our east on Thursday, a few isolated showers and storms may dot the region, with eastern areas having the best opportunity to see the activity. Highs will be cooler Thursday as northerly winds cap highs in the lower 60's.

The weather Friday into the weekend will be dominated by an upper–level area of low pressure that will move eastward over the northern Plains. This low will produce clouds and breezy conditions, and the risk of isolated afternoon showers. Sunday looks like the best day with fair conditions expected with highs in the low 60's.

Mike

Severe Weather Incidents Increase Nationwide

Last week's severe storm outbreak that occurred mainly from Colorado into the Southeastern States has certainly brought the 2010 averages up, but the numbers are still far below the 3-year averages. Looking at the incidents of severe weather in general (including reports of damaging winds, hail and tornadoes), as of April 26th the nation stands at 39% of the 3-year average for 2010, up from 31% on April 16th. Take a look at the graphic below:















However, the incidents of tornadoes have dramatically increased after last week's outbreak, with the 2010 average compared to the 3-year average now at 51%, still way down from where it should be but up dramatically from the 23% on April 16th. Please see the graphic below:















Will the more active severe weather continue? Time will tell, but Greater Nebraska will be getting into it's three biggest severe weather months beginning on May 1st so we need to be prepared. Fortunately, there is no significant severe weather expected in the viewing area this week, though there could be some stronger storms Thursday and possibly Friday, especially over eastern areas. These statistics will be updated periodically so please check back.

Mike

Tuesday's Weather Thoughts

It was a much more pleasant afternoon today after the sun got rid of the morning chill, and tomorrow will be even milder but with more wind.

Skies tonight will be partly cloudy and not near as cold as last night with lows in the upper 30’s, but it will become breezy later at night.
Wednesday will be mostly sunny and highs will reach the middle 70’s, and it is possible a couple of areas approach the 80 degree mark. But a front approaching from the west will increase the pressure gradient across Greater Nebraska, and winds will be gusty out of the southeast, and some gusts could approach 40mph during the afternoon.

The front should drift through most of the viewing area tomorrow night dry, but an area of low pressure developing over Colorado will glide to east-central Nebraska during Thursday, and should set off some showers and thunderstorms. The heaviest activity should be to our east but a few storms could be locally strong. Highs Thursday will be cooler, in the lower 60’s.

Thursday night and Friday is a bit of a question mark as another area of low pressure will develop Thursday over Colorado and follow nearly the same path over Nebraska during Friday. Right now the thinking is that the front should be far enough east so that the heaviest showers and storms from this low should remain over eastern Nebraska. However, if the front stalls during Thursday, this new low could cause heavier showers and storms across Greater Nebraska Thursday night and Friday.

Regardless, the weekend is looking mainly cloudy with some peeks of sun, but isolated showers cannot be ruled out especially during the afternoon as highs get into the lower 60’s

Mike

Monday's Weather Thoughts

A windy, chilly day today will be followed by a cold night, but with less wind.

Highs today under mostly cloudy skies struggled to get out of the 40's, and some areas did not reach 50 though North Plattte and Imperial did with 52 and 55, respectively. Skies will turn partly cloudy tonight, and the wind will begin to diminish near midnight, but lows in the middle 20's coupled with even a light breeze will make it feel quite chilly.

After a cold morning tomorrow, the afternoon will turn pleasant with sunshine and highs reaching the lower 60's with a light wind. Wednesday will be the warmest day of the week as gusty southerly winds boost temperatures into the middle 70's with sunshine. A cold front will approach Wednesday night providing a chance of showers and thunderstorms, then the remainder of the week through the weekend will be unsettled as an upper low in the northern Plains causes clouds, breezy conditions, and some isolated showers as highs stay mainly in the 50's.

Mike

Friday's Weather Thoughts

Any lingering thunderstorm activity will diminish later tonight, but showers will continue as it turns cooler with lows in the mid 40's under mostly cloudy skies.

Saturday is looking rainy, windy and raw as the area of low pressure that has been causing our unsettled weather pulls to our east. Rain may fall moderately at times, and winds may gust past 40mph, and temperatures on in the mid 50's will make it feel quite damp and chilly.

Fortunately, the low should move far enough east by Sunday to allow for a decent day with partly sunny skies and highs near 60, before the next system brings a chance of isolated showers on Monday.

Mike

Thursday's Weather Thoughts - Stormy!

A stormy night is in store for Greater Nebraska.

Low pressure developing over east–central Colorado, and a warm front extending from the low through northern Kansas, will bring showers and thunderstorms through the night. Some of the storms could be strong with heavy rainfall, hail which could be large, and locally damaging winds. An isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out, but the greatest chance of tornadoes will be to our south and east over the next couple of days. Lows tonight will be in the lower 50's.

We should see a break during the morning hours tomorrow over central and southwestern parts of the viewing area as the warm front (or occluded front by then) moves northward toward northern Nebraska. However, as some sunshine develops the atmosphere should destabilize enough so that thunderstorms will begin to pop up during the afternoon, and some of these storms could be strong to severe as well. Highs tomorrow will be in the lower 60's.

By Saturday, wrap around moisture from the now departing low will make for a windy, raw and chilly day with occasional rain and highs only in the middle 50's. Fortunately, it now looks like we may be able to salvage Sunday as some sunshine peaks through the clouds with highs in the upper 50's with breezy conditions.

Please stay tuned to News 2 for the latest on this stormy weather.

Mike

Wednesday's Weather Thoughts

Active weather will return to Greater Nebraska beginning tomorrow and lasting through the weekend.

An upper level area of low pressure over California will move very slowly east over the next several days, arriving over the central Plains on Friday. This upper low will spawn a surface low over Colorado during the day on Thursday, which will also begin to progress slowly eastward, eventually winding up along the Nebraska/Kansas border by Friday morning. From there, the low will glide along the border, ending up over northern Missouri Sunday morning. This low will produce showers and thunderstorms over the region Thursday and Friday, with highs in the upper 50’s to low 60’s, and perhaps a chilly, windy and raw day Saturday with a general rain and highs only in the mid 50’s.

Rainfall amounts during the next several days will range from one-half inch to two inches or more, with the heaviest amounts over the Nebraska Panhandle.
Some strong to severe storms are possible especially over southern parts of the viewing area, with large hail and gusty winds being the biggest threat, but most of the severe weather should remain from Kansas southward.

As the low begins to move away on Sunday, only some showers are expected with perhaps some isolated showers still occurring on Monday.

Mike

Severe Weather Overall Way Down Also

I've already talked about how low the numbers of tornadoes have been this year against the 3 year averages, but here is a graphic showing that severe weather overall (reported tornadoes, large hail, damaging winds) has been way down as well as of April 16th. Right now it is averaging about 31% of the 3 year average.

Mike

Tuesday's Weather Thoughts

More showers and thunderstorms developed across Greater Nebraska this afternoon, and a general line is progressing south and eastward through are southern and eastern parts of the viewing area. A few more showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two will continue until later tonight, but then the activity will diminish to a few isolated showers overnight. After midnight, fog will begin to develop and it may become quite widespread and dense by morning, so caution is advised if you will be driving tomorrow morning. Lows will be in the 40’s.

We will have a precipitation-free day on Wednesday as the region will be between weather systems, though the fog may be difficult to get rid of until the afternoon. During the afternoon we will see some peaks of sun as high approach 60.

Beginning Thursday, a large, slow moving storm system will approach from the Rockies. This storm will spread showers and thunderstorms into the area during Thursday that will continue during Friday. By Saturday, the storm will be moving slowly to our south and east, and a general rain should develop with windy conditions and highs remaining in the 50’s. Windy conditions with the threat of showers will continue on Sunday.

Mike

Monday's Weather Thoughts

An active week of weather is on the way.

Several disturbances and a weak low extend from the northern and central Rockies into the Plains, and together have been producing showers and thunderstorms over Nebraska today, and as these systems work slowly south and east tonight and tomorrow, the chance of showers and storms will continue. A couple of the storms may contain gusty winds, brief heavy downpours, and perhaps some small hail, but no severe storms are anticipated.

We will get a break on Wednesday before a larger and more potent system now moving onshore in California begins to affect our weather beginning Thursday. By late week, a potentially large, strong, slow moving storm system will be developing over the Rockies and will begin moving slowly eastward, and will pass either over or just south of Greater Nebraska Friday and Saturday, bringing more showers and thunderstorms, some which may be heavy and perhaps severe, especially from Thursday night into Saturday.

By Sunday, the low should begin to move east of the area and release its grip on the area. Stay tuned to News 2 for your latest forecast all this week.

Mike

Number Of Tornadoes Way Down Across Nation

Tornado season 2010 has really started off on a very quiet note. Take a look at the graphic below and you will see that the number of tornadoes across the Nation is currently at 23% of what is typical using a 3 year running average. Why is it so quiet? Well, nobody knows for sure though it may have something to do with the fact that the waters of the Gulf of Mexico have been cooler than normal due to the cold winter. However, the waters are beginning to warm now so does this mean that tornado number will begin to pick up? Time will tell. I will update this graphic on a weekly basis so please check back.

Mike

Please click on the graphic for a larger version.

Growing Season? Not Yet!

We still have a way to go before the threat of frost and freezing temperatures is behind us and growing season is here. Here are some graphics showing the probabilities for frost or freeze after certain dates for towns in our region. Click on the graphics for a larger version.

Mike

Friday's Weather Thoughts

Skies were mainly partly sunny today across Greater Nebraska, and as Canadian high pressure moves into the northern Plains its influence will allow for a mostly fair and seasonable weekend.

Tonight will be fair but chilly with lows around freezing. Saturday will start chilly, but temperatures will rebound during the afternoon and approach 60, but there will also be a brisk breeze. On Sunday, moisture advancing toward the region from the south will cause a bit more cloudiness, but highs will warm into the mid 60’s during the afternoon.

Fair and even milder weather will continue through midweek next week, with the next chance of showers and thunderstorms holding off until the end of next week.

Mike

Thursday's Weather Thoughts

Clouds were tough to get rid of this afternoon as residual moisture behind the cold front that passed through the area this morning allowed low and mid level clouds to linger through the afternoon across much of Greater Nebraska. Even a narrow band of showers developed over central parts of the area, but these will dissipate and clouds will begin to break later tonight with lows in the 40’s.

Sunshine will return tomorrow, and with highs near 60 it will be a pleasant afternoon though a bit breezy.

Saturday is looking mainly sunny and nice, but a weak disturbance approaching the region may produce some clouds later in the day and through the day on Sunday. Right now it appears the weather should stay dry both days, but a brief isolated shower or thunderstorms cannot be ruled out entirely. Highs both days will be near 60.

Mike

Wednesday's Weather Thoughts

We enjoyed a much calmer day today after the very windy, stormy weather of yesterday. Unfortunately, showers and thunderstorms will return to the area tonight, but should exit the area by tomorrow afternoon, leaving us with a days-long stretch of fair weather.

The front that crossed Greater Nebraska last evening is now moving back northward as a warm front, and this front is setting off showers and thunderstorms, some of which have been strong to our south and east. The front will cross much of the viewing area overnight before it becomes stationary just to our north and west. Showers and a few heavy, gusty thunderstorms will accompany its passage.

A cold front barreling south from Montana will reach the area tomorrow morning as it is pushed southward by strong high pressure coming out of Canada. This front will act to push the stationary front back to our south during the day, so a few showers may occur during the morning hours until the front is through. Then, the Canadian high pressure will enter the northern plains by Friday morning and will provide fair and seasonable weather across Greater Nebraska for much of the next 5 days. A disturbance will approach the area on late Saturday but it should only produce some cloudiness and little in the way of rainfall.

Mike

Monday's Weather Thoughts

Today was mainly sunny and quite warm with highs in the low 80’s over many areas, and winds became quite gusty during the afternoon. Tonight will still be quite mild with lows not much below 60 as clouds increase, and winds will remain gusty.
By Tuesday, a cold front to our west will progress slowly eastward throughout the day. This front will cause southerly winds to increase further, and by afternoon winds will be gusting past 40mph over the entire area. During mid-afternoon, thunderstorms will begin to develop to our west, possibly a squall-line, and as this line progresses toward Greater Nebraska some storms may become strong to potentially severe, with damaging winds, and perhaps large hail and an outside chance or an isolated tornado.

Showers and thunderstorms, some perhaps strong, will continue into Tuesday night and then begin to die down once past midnight. By Wednesday, the front will be to our south and east, and partly cloudy skies with highs near 70 will be the rule. However, during Thursday the front will begin to lift north over the area, and showers and thunderstorms may develop and continue until Friday morning. Friday and the weekend is looking nice with sunshine and highs near 60.

Stay tuned to News 2 for the latest on Tuesday’s storm potential.

Mike

Friday's Weather Thoughts

After another sunny although breezy day, the weekend is looking mainly fair and seasonable.

A weak disturbance passing to the north of Nebraska tonight will generate partly cloudy skies, and a slight change of a few rain or snow showers over the northern parts of our viewing area. Lows will be in the 30’s.

Saturday is looking mainly sunny with a breeze and highs near 50. Sunday is now looking mostly dry as a warm front that looked like it may introduce a chance of thunderstorms in southern parts of the viewing area now appears that it will remain further south over Kansas. High will approach 70.

However, next week is looking quite wet and potentially stormy as frontal systems will lurk near or over Greater Nebraska all week. While it won’t be raining all the time, showers and thunderstorms could happen at any time with potentially some severe weather sometime during the Tuesday to Thursday time frame.

Mike

Thursday's Weather Thoughts

The sunshine of today will be followed by a clear and starry night tonight with lows in the 30’s with light winds.

The next few days will be mainly fair but with a couple of opportunities for some light precipitation. Friday will be bright and sunny, but quite breezy with highs approaching 60. On Friday night, a weak disturbance will be passing by over South Dakota, and this may be close enough to produce clouds and a few rain or snow showers over northern and panhandle areas, but nothing heavy is expected.
Saturday should then be mainly sunny and pleasant with highs in the 60’s. On Sunday, a warm front will be approaching Greater Nebraska from the south, and depending on the timing of its approach there is a slight chance of a thunderstorm, mainly over southern portions of the viewing area. Highs should get into the upper 60’s.

A greater threat of thunderstorms will occur early to mid next week as a couple of fronts move through the area.

Mike

Wednesday's Weather Thoughts

Old Man Winter’s visit proved to be a short one overnight as sunshine and highs near 50 helped melt most of any snowfall from last night’s event.

Tonight will be partly cloudy and chilly with diminishing winds and lows around 30. A brief flurry cannot be ruled out but most will not see any. High pressure over Colorado will control our weather the next few days, so tomorrow will feature sunshine and clouds, light winds, and highs around 60.

Fair weather with mild temperatures will remain from Friday through the weekend, so outdoor plans should not be affected by any weather concerns.

Mike

Tuesday's Weather Thoughts

Some much needed rain is falling across Greater Nebraska, and this rain will continue overnight into Wednesday morning. Temperatures are much cooler today than they were yesterday at this time, and as some marginally colder air causes temperatures to drop toward the freezing mark overnight, the rain will begin to mix with, and even change to snow, especially over the Panhandle and the Sandhills. This mix and change will first occur over the Panhandle this evening, then over the Sandhills around midnight, then over the remainder of the area after midnight and towards morning.

Since ground temperatures are relatively warm now (in the 50’s), and since temperatures are not expected to drop much below the freezing mark, any snow accumulations that occur will be mainly on grassy areas with roads expected to be mainly wet, though ramps and overpasses could become slick in spots, especially where the snow comes down hard for any amount of time. However, some areas in the Panhandle and the Sandhills could pick up 1” to 3” of snow, and locally a bit more, again mainly on grassy areas. Winter Weather Advisories are in effect through daybreak tomorrow for areas to the north and west of an Ainsworth/North Platte/Imperial line.

Snow or a mix of rain and snow will taper off from northwest to southeast tomorrow morning, and by afternoon most areas will see some sun and highs in 40’s and 50’s. The rest of the week into the weekend is looking sunny and pleasant, with temperatures in the 60’s and perhaps approaching 70 by the weekend.

Mike

Monday's Weather Thoughts

Today’s weather continued the fair streak we enjoyed over the holiday weekend. However, the next couple of days will be much more unsettled, and perhaps a bit wintry.

Tonight we will see increasing clouds, with lows in the 30’s. However, a potent area of low pressure developing over northeastern Colorado will combine with another low pressure area moving in from the Rockies, and form one storm over central Iowa by Tuesday evening. Rain will develop during the afternoon tomorrow, perhaps during the late morning over northern and panhandle areas, and then continue into Tuesday night with highs mostly in the 40’s. While the storm does not have any really cold air to work with, marginally cold air will be available to allow the rain to mix with snow Tuesday night, first in northern and panhandle areas starting late Tuesday afternoon, then into much of Greater Nebraska overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning as lows fall into the lower 30’s.

There is even a possibility that the precipitation may change to mostly snow, especially over northern areas where a few inches could accumulate by Wednesday morning. Elsewhere, any snow that does fall could accumulate on grassy areas, but roads should remain generally wet. It will become breezy as well later tomorrow into Wednesday, which will add to the chill.

The storm will pull away Wednesday afternoon, and the remainder of the week is looking fair and pleasant.

Mike

Friday's Weather Thoughts

Today was much cooler with lots of clouds, and the gusty wind made the chill even more noticeable. After an isolated shower this evening, skies will turn partly cloudy and winds will diminish a bit, but lows will get down to the upper 20’s to lower 30’s, so a chilly night ahead.

Saturday will be a nicer day, which is great news for the Easter Egg Hunt in Cody Park tomorrow afternoon. There will be more in the way of sunshine, and temperatures will be in the upper 50’s to low 60’s. Winds will pick up again though, so the breezy conditions will make it feel a bit cooler.

After a chilly morning, Easter Sunday is looking very nice, with mostly sunny skies and highs in the 60’s. Have an enjoyable holiday weekend!

Mike

Thursday's Weather Thoughts

The fire weather threat will diminish after this evening as clouds, cooler temperatures, and spotty showers dot Greater Nebraska tonight and Friday.

A warm front moved through southern and eastern parts of the viewing area today, and this allowed highs to get into the 70’s with the exception of northern and northwestern areas which stayed in the 60’s. An area of low pressure currently over extreme southwestern Nebraska will move northward overnight and drag a cold front through the regions. This front may produce some spotty showers but for the most part they will be light and mainly over the Nebraska Panhandle.

By tomorrow, the cold front will be over eastern Nebraska, and another low pressure area will develop over Oklahoma and move northward. However, any rain associated with this low will remain mostly to our east, though a few spotty showers cannot be ruled out. Highs will be much cooler and stay in the 40’s and 50’s, and a gust wind will make it feel even cooler.

The holiday weekend is looking nice with sunshine both days, and highs in the 50’s on Saturday and the 60’s Easter Sunday.

Mike